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Analyst Forecasts More Pain For XRP In Q2 – How Much Lower Can It Go?

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As we approach the end of 2026’s first quarter, a crypto market watcher has shared a bearish outlook for XRP, warning that the altcoin’s correction may not be over yet, and it risks a deeper pullback in the next few months.

XRP Risks 60% Correction In Second Quarter

On Tuesday, XRP continued to move sideways, hovering between $1.30 and $1.35 for the fifth consecutive day. The cryptocurrency has been trading between two crucial levels, $1.21 and $1.55, for nearly two months.

Markey observer More Crypto Online highlighted that since the early February correction, there hasn’t been any major price action, as the altcoin has been unable to break out of its local range.

However, he noted that XRP has held the lower boundary of this key range, despite market volatility, adding that it is a crucial support zone and decision area for the cryptocurrency. According to the analysis, the next significant move will define the structure and “determine whether a more bullish scenario remains valid or a deeper correction unfolds.”

He explained that XRP’s current structure suggests a more bearish scenario is likely short- to mid-term, with a “more complex ABC structure” potentially unfolding unless the market “really starts an impulse rally.”

XRP

In this scenario, the cryptocurrency may bounce into a crucial resistance area, between $1.76 and $2.86, for its B wave in the coming weeks before the price continues to retrace to lower levels for Wave C.

This key resistance area requires close attention, the analyst asserted, as there is a possibility of a bounce into it if the February lows hold. He concluded that “If it’s a corrective move up, which currently would be the expectation, (…) in Q2 we may see a bit of a bounce, (…) and then maybe in late Q2 or early Q3, we could see that C wave down.”

Per the chart, this correction could situate XRP’s bottom between the $0.98 and $0.48 levels, which would represent a 30% to 60% pullback from the current levels.

Early Q2 Relief Rally Coming?

Meanwhile, Chard Nerd shared a similar outlook, affirming that XRP may rally to $1.80-$2.00 in the coming months. The analyst has explained that the altcoin could see a relief rally between April and May, which could mark a very critical inflection point, based on its previous performances.

Notably, after peaking in previous cycles, the altcoin has fallen to retest the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), before seeing a relief rally toward the 20 and 50 EMAs. This has been followed by a rejection and a drop to its bear market lows.

The market observer shared that he had expected the relief rally to occur sooner, but noted that the cryptocurrency has been consolidating around its 200 EMA for weeks. This could signal that the retest of this indicator may last longer than in the previous cycle and that the 20 and 50 EMA retests could unfold later.

“XRP is hovering around the 200-week EMA. There have been major relief rallies we’ve seen in the past, which means we could get that, but it likely will be followed by another low later in the year (…) between that $0.90 to $0.70 region. (…) This is where we’re trying to get to before continued expansion,” he concluded.

XRP, XRPUSDT

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