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Bitcoin’s Next Move: A Final Leg Up or Just the Beginning? Analyst Weighs In

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Bitcoin is showing signs of a gradual recovery following its earlier pullback. After dipping below the $100,000 mark, the cryptocurrency has regained ground, currently trading above $102,000.

This represents a 6.3% increase over the past two weeks. Amid this upward trajectory, a CryptoQuant analyst has assessed the patterns of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization and UTXO age bands for clues about what might come next.

What the Data Suggests About Bitcoin’s Future

IT Tech, a contributor to the CryptoQuant QuickTake Platform, recently shared インサイト on Bitcoin’s current cycle behavior. According to the analysis, the proportion of younger UTXOs—coins that have moved recently—has begun to rise.

Historically, high levels of younger UTXOs have coincided with cycle tops, as seen during the peaks of 2013, 2017, and 2021. Although the current cycle has not yet reached these extreme levels, the increase in younger UTXOs suggests that newer market entrants are becoming more active.

Bitcoin UTXO Age Bands.

According to IT Tech, based on historical trends, a high proportion of young UTXOs typically signals increased speculation, which can lead to heightened volatility and a potential market top.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin could see another leg up before significant distribution takes place. Conversely, if long-term holders maintain their positions, the current rally may still have room to grow.

IT Tech emphasized that while current indicators point to increased market activity, the younger UTXO levels remain below historical peaks.

This provides room for Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory, but market participants should remain vigilant. IT Tech concluded by noting:

The chart suggests that we are entering a phase of increased market activity, but the proportion of young UTXOs is not yet at the historical peak levels. This could mean that Bitcoin still has room for further upside, but traders should closely monitor the ratio of young coins to long-term holdings for potential warning signs of a top.

Bitcoin Market Performance

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at a price of $102,768 marking a 1.3% increase in the past day. This slight surge in price has boosted BTC’s market cap back above $2 trillion—a notable surge from $1.96 trillion seen on Monday.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView

Interestingly, despite this increase, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has seen an opposite trend currently sitting at a valuation of $50.2 billion, a notable decrease from over $100 billion seen last week.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

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