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Red August, Green Signals: Why Bitcoin’s Structure Remains Unshaken

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August’s weak close has revived worries that Bitcoin’s downturn could extend into September, a period that often proved unfavourable for the asset.

However, recent on-chain indicators suggest that underlying market strength remains intact despite recent bouts of volatility.

Bitcoin’s Next Leg Up

One key indicator, Delta Cap, currently stands at $739.4 billion, with a corresponding price of $108.9K. Derived from the difference between Realized Cap and Average Cap, Delta Cap has historically functioned as a long-term valuation floor during major market cycles.

With BTC trading comfortably above this steadily rising line, analysts at CryptoQuant point to signs of strong capital inflows and renewed conviction among long-term investors, even as short-term spot prices face corrections. Meanwhile, institutional demand appears to be accelerating.

The Coinbase Premium Gap, which measures the price difference between US exchange Coinbase and global counterpart Binance, currently reflects a positive spread of +11.6. This premium means that US institutions are willing to pay more for Bitcoin exposure, a trend that in past cycles has led to extended bullish moves as institutional buying pressure drives price discovery.

Together, these indicators depict a constructive market setup: Bitcoin consolidating above the $100K threshold with both institutional support and a steadily climbing valuation base.

Rather than signaling weakness, current corrections may represent opportunities for accumulation within a strong structural uptrend.

Analyst Rekt Fencer also pushed back against the prevailing September gloom as he tweeted that a major Bitcoin dump is unlikely this time around. According to him, BTC has already “front-ran” the seasonal sell-off, which means that recent August weakness effectively priced in the downside risk.

Drawing parallels to 2017, he noted that the market followed a similar trajectory back then, where early corrections shook out bearish sentiment before a strong rally took hold. Fencer argues that history may be repeating itself, with bears once again misjudging the setup and potentially missing the next upward move.

Perfect Storm for Rally

Analysts have recently weighed down on the slowdown and observed that this period could be setting the stage for a much larger rally in fall 2025. Long-term holding patterns, for one, indicate that the BTC market is in Phase 3 of its cycle, which tends to feature lengthening uptrends and softer corrections compared to earlier phases. This cycle has been shaped by new factors, including spot ETFs, rising institutional involvement, and even government-level adoption.

At the same time, capital rotation into altcoins has periodically slowed Bitcoin’s momentum, a trend seen more prominently now than during the 2023-2024 run. Still, macro catalysts remain favorable: a potential September rate cut and possible approval of altcoin ETFs in October could provide renewed fuel.

ポスト Red August, Green Signals: Why Bitcoin’s Structure Remains Unshaken に初登場した。 クリプトポテト.

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