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5 Signals That Show Most Bullish Bitcoin Setup Since 2020

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“This may be the most bullish setup for Bitcoin since 2020,” said analysts at BTC financial services firm Swan on May 3.

The first observation was that the safe haven bet of 2025, gold, has just had a historic run, having surged 30% since the beginning of the year, hitting an all-time high of just over $3,400 per ounce on April 22.

However, it is now taking a breather, having fallen around 3% this week while Bitcoin is up around 4%, they observed.

“Every time BTC starts catching up like this, it’s the start of something bigger,” they said before adding that last time, BTC went from $70,000 to $108,000.

Liquidity Rising

The second signal is a global rise in liquidity in the form of M2 money supply, which is rising for the first time since 2021. According to the St. Louis Fed, M2 money supply has increased by 4% over the past 12 months.

“Every major Bitcoin bull market has followed this pattern: expanding money supply, softening financial conditions, waning trust in fiat. This is fuel, and Bitcoin is built to absorb it.”

Volatility also recently spiked to March 2020 levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – a measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility – has calmed, but uncertainty hasn’t, and markets are twitchy, they said.

“Bitcoin thrives in chaos because it offers certainty, finality, and neutrality when everything else breaks down.”

Economist and author Timothy Peterson also commented on the VIX, observing that the index has dropped from 55 to 25 over the past 50 trading days, and a VIX score below 18 implies a “risk-on” environment, favoring assets like Bitcoin, which could occur “in a few weeks.”

His tracking model, which has been accurate 95% of the time, predicted a BTC price of $135,000 in the next three months or so, if the VIX remains low.

The Swan analysts pointed to the MVRV ratio, a measure of market value divided by realized value, which just bounced off 1.74. This has “marked the start of every major Bitcoin bull market,” and it’s flashing again now, they said.

Additionally, “sellers look exhausted between $90,000 and $100,000,” they said before adding that price is rising above cost basis, and the weak hands are gone.

“This is the structure historically seen when Bitcoin is about to go vertical.”

Interest Rate Impact

At current levels, every 25 basis point decline in rates equates to roughly a 10% increase in Bitcoin price, observed Peterson on May 2.

Given the speed with which this rate is falling, a 75 basis point decline is reasonable within one to two months, he said before adding “that would put Bitcoin near $130,000.”

BTC is up more than 15% over the past month and closed in on $98,000 in late trading on Friday, its highest level since February 21.

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