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Bitcoin (BTC) Floor at $46K? Willy Woo Says Macro Risks Could Push It Lower

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Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price action has remained weak, with repeated failures to reclaim levels above $70,000, leaving the asset consolidating between $66,000 and $68,000. The asset posted a slight uptick of 2% on Monday, as it traded above $67,700.

Analysts warn that geopolitical uncertainty is weakening bullish setups, thereby reducing confidence in any upside despite the emergence of short-term price recovery signals.

Capital Is Leaving Bitcoin

On-chain analyst Willy Woo said that according to legacy valuation models, Bitcoin could bottom between $46,000 and $54,000, while also indicating a potentially extended timeline for recovery. In his latest tweet, Woo said that capital held in BTC has been trending downward since November, which points to steady outflows. The analyst also highlighted that the CVDD Floor model, currently near $45,500, continues to rise, providing support.

However, he warned that such models are based on historical patterns derived from just four prior bear markets, all of which occurred during a broader “secular” uptrend in global risk assets. If that macro backdrop weakens or breaks down, Woo warned that the leading crypto asset could enter uncharted territory, which could end up increasing the chances of a deeper and longer bear market.

In line with these warnings about a fragile macro setup, another prominent analyst has also dismissed the recent rally as temporary.

Bitcoin Bottom Not In Yet

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit has reiterated a bearish outlook on Bitcoin, while stating that the asset’s move does not mean a confirmed trend reversal. According to his findings, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase and could still see further upside in the near term, and a possible move toward the $79,000-$84,000 range is expected.

However, the analyst acknowledged that this potential upside does not justify long positions from a risk-reward perspective. Instead, he maintains an active strategy of positioning shorts, including adding new entries if Bitcoin revisits the $79,000-$84,000 zone. While he assigned a moderate probability to price reaching that range, he warned that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty reduces the attractiveness of bullish exposure.

Doctor Profit further explained that he does not consider the market to have bottomed yet and continues to view Bitcoin as being in an active bear phase. In a separate statement, he placed a likely bottom between $35,000 and $45,000.

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