{"id":30695,"date":"2025-08-08T00:00:06","date_gmt":"2025-08-08T00:00:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/bitcoin-faces-a-black-swan-bitwise-sounds-the-alarm\/"},"modified":"2025-08-08T00:00:06","modified_gmt":"2025-08-08T00:00:06","slug":"bitcoin-faces-a-black-swan-bitwise-sounds-the-alarm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/id\/bitcoin-faces-a-black-swan-bitwise-sounds-the-alarm\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Faces A Black Swan \u2014 Bitwise Sounds The Alarm"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last Friday\u2019s US July Employment Situation release has delivered the kind of statistical jolt that rarely shows up outside crises, forcing traders to re-evaluate both the macro outlook and Bitcoin\u2019s near-term path. Payrolls grew by just 73,000, but the shock lay in the record-large negative revisions: May and June were marked down by a combined 258,000 jobs, slicing the three-month hiring average to 35,000 and erasing nearly all of the second-quarter\u2019s reported momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that revisions of that magnitude have been seen only during the Covid collapse.<\/p>\n

Is Bitcoin Really Facing A Black Swan Event?<\/h2>\n

Bloomberg Economics chief US economist Anna Wong wrote<\/a>: \u201cThe downward revisions to May and June payrolls in the July jobs report constitute a black swan event \u2013 a three-standard-deviation move with less than a 0.2% chance of occurrence in the last 30 years. Adjusted for our estimate of the job overstatement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics\u2019 birth-death model, the three-month hiring pace turns outright negative.\u201d The data, she wrote in a terminal note circulated Friday, \u201cflipped the labor-market script\u201d from re-acceleration to abrupt cooling.<\/p>\n

Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Another Crash To Fill This Imbalance Before Rally To $120,000<\/a><\/p>\n

The market\u2019s crypto voice on the issue has been Bitwise Europe\u2019s head of research, Andr\u00e9 Dragosch, who spent the morning posting a string of warnings on X. First came the news, \u201dAccording to Bloomberg chief economist Anna Wong, the most recent payroll revisions were a \u2018black swan event\u2019.Will probably get even worse before it gets better\u2026\u201d, then the maxim, \u201cYes \u2013 bad for payrolls = good for bitcoin, at least over the medium to long term.\u201d<\/p>\n

Minutes later he argued that deeper revisions could force emergency easing: \u201cNOTE: There is a strong case for a negative June jobs print after further downside revisions which could lead to a 50 bps rate cut in September\u2026 Plan accordingly. #Bitcoin\u201d<\/p>\n

By mid-afternoon he pushed the point to its logical extreme: \u201cATTENTION: We are probably just a single negative NFP print away from a significant repricing in Fed rate cut expectations. US labor market & inflation data surprises are still as bad as during Covid but traders only price in 2 cuts until Dec 2025\u2026 Printer is coming\u2026 \u201d<\/p>\n

Interest-rate futures moved sharply in Dragosch\u2019s direction. On Wednesdays, the CME FedWatch Tool showed a 91 percent probability of at least one cut at the 17\u201318 September FOMC meeting<\/a>. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari acknowledged that \u201cthe real underlying economy is slowing,\u201d while Governor Lisa Cook called the size of the revisions \u201cconcerning.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s price action captured the tug-of-war between recession fear<\/a> and liquidity hope. The flagship cryptocurrency slumped to $111,920 on 2 August, its lowest print since early July, immediately after the payroll release and President Donald Trump\u2019s subsequent firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. A tentative rebound toward $111,500 followed as rate-cut odds ballooned this week. Yet, Bitcoin remained tethered to macro headlines rather than its own cycle.<\/p>\n

Still, the first clear sign of positioning for easier policy has emerged in fund flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net $91.6 million inflow on 7 August, snapping a four-day outflow streak<\/a> that had drained more than $380 million from the vehicles.<\/p>\n

Whether Bloomberg\u2019s and Dragosch\u2019s black-swan framing proves prescient will depend on the next few data prints and the Fed\u2019s tolerance for risk. For now the market is caught between those poles: one bad jobs number away from a full-blown policy response, but one more shock away from a broader risk-off spiral. The only certainty, as Wong\u2019s probability math and Dragosch\u2019s full-throated alerts both imply, is that the margin for error has evaporated.<\/p>\n

At press time, BTC traded at $116,359.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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