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JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Is ‘Undervalued’—But By How Much?

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JPMorgan has thrown fresh fuel on the most durable comparison in digital assets, arguing in a new research note that Bitcoin now screens “too cheap” versus gold as its volatility collapses to historic lows.

How Undervalued Is Bitcoin?

The bank’s cross-asset team says six-month BTC volatility has fallen from nearly 60% at the start of 2025 to roughly 30%—a series low—and that Bitcoin is now only about twice as volatile as gold, the narrowest gap on record. On the bank’s volatility-adjusted framework, that compression implies Bitcoin’s market value would need to rise about 13%—translating to roughly $126,000 per coin—to align with the roughly $5 trillion private investment market in gold, leaving BTC “undervalued by around $16,000” on this basis.

The framing matters. JPMorgan is not saying Bitcoin should be as large as the entire gold complex—jewelry, central-bank reserves and industrial uses included—but rather that on a risk-adjusted basis, given how much less volatile BTC has become relative to bullion, Bitcoin’s capitalization can justify a higher level than where it trades today if one benchmarks against gold’s private-investment slice of the market. The headline takeaway—“Bitcoin undervalued vs. gold as volatility falls”—was amplified by market-moving account Walter Bloomberg on X, underscoring the point that the valuation gap is a function of volatility as much as price.

The bank’s analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, attribute part of the volatility collapse to an evolving holder base and market structure. They point to accelerating accumulation by corporate treasuries—which they estimate now hold more than 6% of circulating supply—and to index-related dynamics that are drawing passive capital into equities tied to Bitcoin exposure, both of which dampen day-to-day swings. The cause-and-effect is straightforward in their telling: a larger, more stable base of “sticky” holders lowers realized volatility, which in turn raises fair value on a volatility-normalized, gold-relative model.

Gold Parity And Beyond

The claim also drew a pointed reaction from industry commentators. “It’s only a matter of time until Bitcoin reaches parity with gold,” argued Joe Consorti, head of growth at Theya, calling JPMorgan’s note “a big admission.”

In his view, the longer-run destination is not parity on a risk-adjusted model but outright dominance: “At today’s market capitalization, Bitcoin would trade at $1.17 million per coin if it were equal to the size of gold.” He extends the thought experiment into a timeline, contending that if Bitcoin and gold simply maintain their five-year compound growth rates, parity arrives in the early 2030s.

“If Bitcoin and gold simply keep growing at their current five-year compound annual growth rates, parity arrives in late 2031. That would mean a $53 trillion market cap for Bitcoin and a price north of $2.5 million per coin. Even under more conservative assumptions, the convergence still happens in the early 2030s. Because it’s not just about Bitcoin’s growth, it’s also about gold losing market share,” the analyst argues.

While these are Consorti’s projections, not JPMorgan’s, they sketch the more maximalist endpoint of the same relative-value logic.

At press time, BTC traded at $111,061.

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