Ethereum is getting harder to value.<\/p>\n
After Dencun, fees collapsed, but network usage kept growing. Our latest research by Luke Nolan (@eazygambit<\/a>) introduces a 5-year sum-of-parts framework for ETH, combining cash flows, monetary premium, and network effects.<\/p>\n Base case: ~$4,935\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/dd938gknAR<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 CoinShares (@CoinSharesCo) June 2, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The central premise is that Ethereum has become harder to value after Dencun<\/a>. CoinShares notes that the upgrade moved execution activity away from the base layer and toward layer-2 networks, pushing user costs down and throughput higher, but also sharply reducing the fee revenue that had previously supported ETH\u2019s \u201cultrasound money\u201d narrative<\/a>. Weekly fees that peaked above $200 million in early 2024 now run closer to $10 million, even as monthly active users have roughly doubled over the same period.<\/p>\n \u201cEther is not a tech stock and it is not digital gold,\u201d the report states. \u201cIt is the native asset of a permissionless platform on which builders can deploy essentially anything, drawing on decentralised security, leading liquidity, and global access. Within that ecosystem, ether also functions as money and as collateral.\u201d<\/p>\n That distinction drives the structure of the model. CoinShares\u2019 first framework treats Ethereum like a business selling blockspace, projecting fee revenue across DEX trading, stablecoin transfers, DeFi activity, blob transactions<\/a>, ETH transfers, real-world asset settlement, staking operations and a residual \u201cother\u201d category. In that framework, the contribution to ETH\u2019s 2031 price is modest: $25 in the bear case, $385 in the base case and $2,055 in the bull case.<\/p>\n The second framework carries much more weight. It treats ETH as the monetary and collateral base of the Ethereum ecosystem, modeling demand from staking, DeFi collateral, layer-2 reserves, ETF inflows, corporate treasury allocations and store-of-value buying. CoinShares says this component produces a 2031 price contribution of $1,774 in the bear case, $3,960 in the base case and $10,065 in the bull case.<\/p>\n Across the report, the bull case is deliberately demanding. It assumes Ethereum\u2019s structural demand sources compound at elevated levels, rather than merely stabilize. CoinShares models fee revenue reaching $5.7 billion by 2031, supported by DEX volumes growing at a 25% CAGR and Ethereum L1 market share expanding to 35%. Stablecoin supply, in this scenario, reaches $2.8 trillion at a 50% CAGR, while tokenized real-world assets scale to $420 billion on Ethereum specifically.<\/p>\nEthereum\u2019s Future Depends On A Monetary Premium<\/h2>\n
![\"Ethereum](\"https:\/\/www.newsbtc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/ETHUSDT_2026-06-03_09-03-23.png?resize=1024%2C502\")
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"