{"id":50655,"date":"2026-07-23T21:56:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T21:56:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/has-bitcoin-already-bottomed-grayscale-says-macro-signals-matter-more\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T21:56:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T21:56:32","slug":"has-bitcoin-already-bottomed-grayscale-says-macro-signals-matter-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/bg\/has-bitcoin-already-bottomed-grayscale-says-macro-signals-matter-more\/","title":{"rendered":"Has Bitcoin Already Bottomed? Grayscale Says Macro Signals Matter More"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The debate over when Bitcoin\u2019s bear market will end is largely split between two views. One camp still holds on to the traditional four-year cycle, while the other believes that the bottom may already be in.<\/p>\n<p>Grayscale, for one, favors the latter.<\/p>\n<h2>Macro Over Market Cycles<\/h2>\n<p>The supporters of the four-year cycle theory see Bitcoin halving events as the main driver of price movements and expect the current downturn to follow the same pattern as previous bear markets. Historically, the crypto asset has reached its bottom around one year after a cyclical peak and roughly two and a half years after a halving event, with cumulative declines averaging about 80%.<\/p>\n<p>Based on that framework, Bitcoin\u2019s price could still fall further and reach a bottom in September or October. Grayscale, however, said it subscribes to an alternative view that BTC has matured as an asset and is now increasingly driven by broader macroeconomic forces, similar to other major asset classes.<\/p>\n<p>The firm <a href=\"https:\/\/www.grayscale.com\/the-stack\/bitcoin-four-year-cycle-or-macro-asset\">noted<\/a> that previous bear markets have coincided with periods of slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates, and added that this year\u2019s downturn has unfolded alongside shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve policy and higher real interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>Under this macro-driven framework, Grayscale said the asset\u2019s price could find its bottom when those broader economic conditions begin to improve. The firm even added that if the Federal Reserve refrains from further rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, BTC\u2019s price may have already reached its low, making a further decline unnecessary despite expectations under the four-year cycle model.<\/p>\n<p>Grayscale is not the only one arguing that the cryptocurrency could be approaching a turning point.<\/p>\n<h2>More Analysts Back Early Bottom Thesis<\/h2>\n<p>Crypto trader Killa also <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/KillaXBT\/status\/2079916774884073494\">said<\/a> Bitcoin\u2019s market structure suggests the bottom may already be in, although he remains \u201c50\/50\u201d because of the cycle\u2019s timing. The trader explained that BTC has now \u201cswept the dead cat base low\u201d and completed the same five-wave corrective structure seen throughout previous bear markets. However, earlier bear markets took roughly 365 days to reach their final trough, whereas the current cycle would have bottomed in around 260 days.<\/p>\n<p>Despite this, Killa said the \u201cmistake is assuming\u201d cycle lengths never change and believes Bitcoin is more likely to form higher lows than make significant new lows.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this week, crypto analyst Ali Martinez <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/bitcoin-just-triggered-three-rare-signals-that-previously-marked-market-bottoms\/\">said<\/a> the monthly chart is displaying the same combination of technical signals seen near the end of the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear markets. While Martinez acknowledged that on-chain metrics such as MVRV and CVDD still leave room for a decline toward the $40,000-$50,000 range, he observed the current technical setup has historically identified a dominant accumulation zone with a favorable risk-to-reward profile for spot BTC buyers.<\/p>\n<p>A similar argument was made by crypto analyst Doctor Profit, who <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/analyst-says-waiting-for-bitcoins-four-year-cycle-bottom-could-be-a-costly-mistake\/\">warned<\/a> that investors waiting for a traditional four-year cycle bottom in September or October could end up missing the market\u2019s next move. While Bitcoin could still revisit the $54,000 area, the analyst said he does not expect a drop below $50,000 and believes gradual accumulation already offers an attractive risk-reward profile.<\/p>\n<p>\u041f\u0443\u0431\u043b\u0438\u043a\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f\u0442\u0430 <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/has-bitcoin-already-bottomed-grayscale-says-macro-signals-matter-more\/\">Has Bitcoin Already Bottomed? Grayscale Says Macro Signals Matter More<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptopotato.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">CryptoPotato<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The debate over when Bitcoin\u2019s bear market will end is largely split between two views. One camp still holds on to the traditional four-year cycle, while the other believes that the bottom may already be in. Grayscale, for one, favors the latter. Macro Over Market Cycles The supporters of the four-year cycle theory see Bitcoin [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50657,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-feeds"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Has Bitcoin Already Bottomed? 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Macro Over Market Cycles The supporters of the four-year cycle theory see Bitcoin [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cryptd.in\/bg\/has-bitcoin-already-bottomed-grayscale-says-macro-signals-matter-more\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"cryptd.in\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-23T21:56:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"cryptd.in\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"cryptd.in\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 \u043c\u0438\u043d\u0443\u0442\u0438\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/has-bitcoin-already-bottomed-grayscale-says-macro-signals-matter-more\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/has-bitcoin-already-bottomed-grayscale-says-macro-signals-matter-more\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"cryptd.in\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/cryptd.in\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/7973e8183bc6723b86adfe84d5af0ce4\"},\"headline\":\"Has Bitcoin Already Bottomed? 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